We are the champions, or at least we're getting there.

[jackshoegazer]

Check out this electoral map from the latest poll numbers.  This was compiled by the right-wing, prostitute-toe-sucker Dick Morris, and even he sees Obama way in the lead, as far as electoral votes go. 

Now that the Palin bounce has run its course and the election is once again focused on the issues, especially the economy, Obama had jumped six or seven points in the polls, once again holding his lead. 

Also, we must remember that the 18-30 crowd is polling 70% Obama to 30% for McCain.  The majority of these voters do not have landline telephones and thus are not polled.  Statistics are showing that to adjust for this, an extra 4 to 12% should be added to Obama's poll numbers.

If the youth vote turns out like I think they will, especially with the huge voter registration drives this year, this is going to be a landslide, barring any major Obama gaffes or McCain growing a second, smarter head.

Comments

[orangebeaver.livejournal.com]

I hope so. But do the 18-30 crowd vote reliably? I hope they do this time.

[jackshoegazer.livejournal.com]

...youth voter turnout rates have trended downward since 1972. That year, on the heels of the 26th Amendment that lowered the voting age to 18, and in the middle of the unpopular Vietnam war, young people recorded the highest turnout rate thus far -- 55 percent.

It's true that since then -- except for the spike in 1992 -- young voters have not been a reliable voting bloc. The tides are turning, however, and our generation has already made history. The turnout in both of the 2004 and 2006 general elections (up 9 and 3 percentage points, respectively) marks the first time that young people have increased their turnout in two consecutive elections....

So yes, it's looking like they will turn out this year, especially since so many are ardent Obama supporters and the majority of Americans can see that this is quite possibly the most important election we may ever see.

[firebirdgrrl.livejournal.com]

!
:)

[dakini-grl.livejournal.com]

I want to believe. I am so concerned about the results of this election, I can barely talk about it. Thanks for the hope!

[nearlymay.livejournal.com]

second

[jackshoegazer.livejournal.com]

Also keep in mind that the corporate media want a horse race - it is in their financial advantage to make it look close to rake in those political ad dollars. Whoever gets ahead is going to get hammered. Look at pre-convention coverage where the majority of the news was all about Obama, yet 70% of those stories were negative. Post-convention, when McCain took the lead thanks to the Palin Bubble, the media finally started to hammer on him a bit and we can expect another switch now that Obama's in the lead again.

[labelle77.livejournal.com]

I dunno... while it might not necessarily be good for the country, you gotta admit a prez with a dumb head and smart head always arguing amongst itself while Caribou Barbie runs around confusedly wondering which one to feed the nitroglycerin to would be pretty damn entertaining. ;)

[jackshoegazer.livejournal.com]

Entertaining, but economically disastrous :) Great fodder for SNL though :D

[abmann.livejournal.com]

He doesn't talk about his polling method. I want to know who he surveyed.

[abmann.livejournal.com]

OHAI. You mention that. Stupid telephones. Telephones are for old fogeys.

[jackshoegazer.livejournal.com]

He didn't do surverys himself, from what I could find out, but just complied all the recent state-by-state polling numbers.

[castleclear.livejournal.com]

Thanks for this. The corporate media keeps asserting that it's neck and neck, while I keep praying that it's not, that Obama will win by a landslide, and that an Obama Administration will be stellar right from the start--because it has to be given the range and severity of problems facing the nation.

[jackshoegazer.livejournal.com]

Well, considering that we're headed toward the collapse of the largest Ponzi scheme ever concocted and quite possibly another Great Depression, I pity whoever gets elected because they are going to have their work cut out for them.

[bizarre.livejournal.com]

electoral system is so outdated

we seriously need to get rid of it

[kiwikat.livejournal.com]

The electoral college is the only way to be sure that votes are weighted by population and thus counted fairly. You can't have a straight one-man one-vote policy because of variations in turnout. What if there was a major earthquake in California on election day and lots of people couldn't vote? The way electoral votes are distributed would ensure that California still has their fair share of influence based on its' population even if hardly anyone shows up. It's not perfect, but it's the only real way to be sure that votes are allocated by population. While it certainly has its' flaws I'm not sure how we could replace it without causing a myraid of other problems.

[tyskkvinna.livejournal.com]

I wouldn't be able to contain myself if Obama won by more than a 10-point lead in the popular vote. IMO, more presidential elections need a wider margin. When it's tiny, invisible margins it's hard to feel they have a true majority...

But I'll simply be thrilled to see Obama win.

[jackshoegazer.livejournal.com]

Presidential elections have almost always been fairly close - I mean 6 points is a landslide. The Kennedy-Nixon election was even closer than the Gore-Bush election.

I think, feel, that Obama will get this. Independents are leaning Blue this year and the Democrats have never been so fired up about a candidate. As long as we can keep the discussion on the issues, we can't lose. The debates will prove that. Obama can dance mental macarenas around McCain and don't even get me started about what a farce the Biden-Palin debate is going to be.

[holographia.livejournal.com]

very heartening news. i live in oregon, which is a pretty "blue" state so i'm not worried about the people here but in the traditionally "red" states... oy. i just don't see how anyone can NOT look at the issues at hand, but i know some people who aren't and it totally blows my mind and saddens my heart.

[jackshoegazer.livejournal.com]

Unfortunately most voters are low-information voters or hot-button, wedge-issue voters. If everyone were well-educated about the issues and voted only on major issues like security and the economy, (especially the economy!) the whole country would turn blue. Unfortunately many people who vote Red do so either out of fear, ignorance, or social conservatism.

[atomic-goo.livejournal.com]

I feel honored that I will take part in turning Virginia blue. (Oh, it will happen.) What a good first election to be a part of/vote in. :D

[jackshoegazer.livejournal.com]

YAY! It's very close there, so this election every vote really does count.

[schmecky.livejournal.com]

I totally agree. Second on the list of things to learn as a country (after 'how many times do you have to be punchedin the gut before you figure out who is punching you') is how deeply flawed polls are. Not only do they lean heavily towards people with landlines, no caller id, and regular work schedules, I think (anecdotally, I admit) that they under-represent voters in urban areas. I certainly don't know anyone who's ever been called, I don't know anyone who does - and I've been asking.

[jackshoegazer.livejournal.com]

I've been polled at least three times, the first one was in 2000 for Reuters where I was one of the 73% of people who said they'd elect Bill Clinton for a 3rd term if we could.

One thing we really need to do is make sure we have very thorough and accurate exit polling. We can't get around the fact that the 'Pubs are going to do everything they can to keep Dems from voting. Bill said it best: when more people vote, Dems win.

[explodingalice.livejournal.com]

I am so hopeful this year. The bitter and cynical part of me is mortified at the hoping part, but the hopeful is winning. :)

[jackshoegazer.livejournal.com]

I will be crushed if we don't win this time. I'm trying to prepare myself for that possibility but I can't do it. I feel like if I am constantly focused, that if I'm paying attention, I can get Obama elected by force of will alone.

[nonbeast.livejournal.com]

yeah, my mom pointed out that thing about youth voters not being polled, and that was such a relief to me. and that map makes me happy to see florida is leaning blue, yay. our state was embarrassed too much in 2000. I will be really disappointed if McCain wins. I think the stakes are just way too high and the idea of Palin having that rank scares me.

[jackshoegazer.livejournal.com]

Here's some really good Florida news:

From MSNBC:

If you want to know why Obama is doing his debate prep today in -- of all places -- Tampa, FL, look no further than the latest TODAY Show/NBC/Mason-Dixon poll, which has Obama up in the Sunshine State by two points, 47%-45%.

Florida isn’t the only state looking good for Obama after the political winds shifted last week. In Virginia, he’s up by three points among likely voters (49%-46%) and six points among registered ones (50%-44%), according to a new Washington Post/ABC survey. Also, a new round of Wall Street Journal/WashingtonPost.com/Quinnipiac polling shows Obama leading among likelies in Colorado (49%-45%), Michigan (48%-44%), Minnesota (47%-45%), and Wisconsin (49%-42%). The lone piece of good battleground news for McCain comes from New Hampshire, where the latest University of New Hampshire poll has the Arizona senator up by two points (47%-45%).